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Saudi Arabia: monthly report October 2024

On 9 October, the Iranian authorities warned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that they had closed their airspace, stating that any violation would be considered unacceptable and would be met with a firm response from Iran. The Iranian warning came in the wake of the 1 October attack, in which Tehran fired some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah. The message is clear, and the priority is one: regional unity against Israel and maintaining regional stability. It is clear that any form of Gulf support for Tel Aviv against Tehran, be it the use of airspace or military bases, would be considered a hostile act and would receive an appropriate response,' an Iranian government source told The Time of Israel. The Iranian warning follows a GCC meeting in Qatar on 2 October, where Israeli operations in Lebanon were reviewed. It coincided with the 19th Asian Cooperation Dialogue, an intergovernmental forum that brings together several Asian countries to coordinate various international organizations. The meetings were also attended by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who, on his return from the General Assembly, warned that any further Israeli action aimed at directly hitting Tehran would be met with a harsh response.

On 22 October, the Saudi Minister of Defence, Prince Khalid Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz, visited Rome where he met his Italian counterpart, Guido Crosetto. In the presence of two large delegations, the ministers discussed the latest developments in the war in the Middle East and cooperation between their respective armed forces. The potential prospects for security and industrial cooperation between the two countries were highlighted, especially after the lifting of the ban on arms exports to Riyadh in June 2023. In this context, the Saudi Minister then met with the top management of the Italian defence industry, with whom he explored the possibilities of cooperation between the two countries. The Italian industry was represented by General Enzo Vecciarelli, adviser to the Ministry of Defence on industrial policy, Stefano Pontecorvo, president of Leonardo, Biagio Mazzotta, president of Fincantieri, and Enzo Benigni, president of the ELT Group.

Finally, it is reported that Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its informal target of USD 100 per barrel as a benchmark oil price. The move appears to signal Riyadh's resignation to a period of relatively low prices. According to the Financial Times, this would allow the kingdom to rebalance its recent oil policy and gain new market share that, when added to non-oil growth, could strengthen economic growth. The impact of the production cuts agreed by OPEC+ over the past two years has been mitigated by increased production from non-cartel members (US, Brazil, Canada).

Download the October 2024 report

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