Egypt

Countries

Egypt: monthly report October 2024

The conflict in Gaza has now spiraled to a point where regional diplomacy is unable to reverse it. Consequently, Egypt is focusing on partnerships outside the Middle East, driven by Al-Sisi's pragmatic vision and an improved economic situation compared to the previous year. Cairo seeks to leverage these new alliances to bolster its position on the international stage, fully aware of both the challenges and benefits involved.

During the BRICS meeting in New York, held alongside the 79th United Nations General Assembly, Egypt declined to sign the joint document addressing issues such as the Middle East conflict, the expansion of the bloc, and proposals for a common currency. Conceived as a show of unity among BRICS members in preparation for the Kazan summit, this meeting instead highlighted the divergences among members, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia. The decision of these two countries not to sign the document reflects tensions over Nile water management and certain opposition to the positions of Brazil, India, and South Africa, which seek support from new members for their aspirations to join the Security Council. In contrast, Egypt is aiming to represent Africa within the UN, and this discord led Brazilian Foreign Minister Vieira, who presided over the meeting, to postpone it.

While Egypt's partnership with BRICS still shows limitations in fulfilling Cairo’s aspirations, its relationship with the United Arab Emirates appears increasingly solid. The recent visit of UAE President Mohammed Bin Zayed to Cairo highlights Egypt's appreciation for Emirati support in managing the currency crisis affecting the country. Together with Al-Sisi, the Emirati leader attended the inauguration of the Ras El Hekma construction site, where a luxury resort funded by Abu Dhabi is set to be built, under a 30-year concession worth $35 billion. Despite the official photo opportunities, no statement was released following the meeting between Al-Sisi and Bin Zayed, signaling the sensitive nature of the topics discussed, including the crisis in Sudan, where Egypt supports Al-Burhan’s army, while the UAE is accused of backing the RSF.

With the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Cairo. Following the meeting, Al-Sisi’s office stated that the two leaders discussed the "need to halt regional escalation" and the intensification of efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. Relations between Egypt and Iran have seen a slow improvement in recent years, but Iran’s hopes for a détente with Egypt or the Arab world more broadly remain unfulfilled. Al-Sisi continues to view Iran's maneuvers in the Levant with suspicion, perceiving them as destabilizing as the Israeli offensive. Additionally, investments by Gulf countries in the Egyptian economy establish clear priorities for Cairo’s diplomatic relations, suggesting that a rapprochement with Iran might be sacrificed in favor of ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Lastly, the month concludes with rising tensions between Egypt and Russia due to delays in grain supplies. Following the BRICS summit in Kazan, Al-Sisi had to acknowledge a new delay in the record delivery of 430,000 tons of grain agreed upon last spring. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture did not comment on the delay, while the Russian Farmers Union attributed it to bureaucratic inefficiencies and misunderstandings with partners. This second delay within a year underscores Egypt’s need to diversify its grain suppliers. Options under consideration include purchasing from Kazakhstan, with Emirati financial backing, or partially restoring supplies from Ukraine, whose Foreign Minister Sybiha visited Egypt just as news of the latest delays emerged.

Download the October 2024 report

GERD: the waters of the Nile at the center of the dispute between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a strategic infrastructure for the future of Ethiopia, which however represents an element of tension between the countries located along the river Nile.

Read the news

Middle East: Blinken’s visit to Egypt, Israel and the West Bank

A report on the US Secretary of State’s recent visit to the Middle East. By Anna Maria Cossiga

Read the article

Russia and China in the scramble for nuclear power in Africa

The number of African countries thinking of developing a nuclear programme is growing, while collaboration projects with Russia and China are increasing. By Emanuele Rossi

Read the article
Read more content about Egypt