Ethiopia
Kenya continues to face political instability exacerbated by the public debt crisis. Economically, the government seems close to finalizing an agreement with the United Arab Emirates for a $1.5 billion loan, with an expected interest rate of around 8.2%, lower than the current yields on Kenyan sovereign bonds. However, the agreement's details may change as negotiations progress, and both parties have remained silent on the specifics. Nairobi’s decision to seek support from the UAE is also linked to delays from the International Monetary Fund, which has yet to release around $600 million in aid. The IMF postponed this funding, expressing doubts about recent government measures amid fears of further public protests. This situation is part of a complex financial landscape in which Kenya struggles to access funding, especially after its sovereign bonds were downgraded to "junk" by major rating agencies. An IMF spokesperson stated, “Discussions are ongoing regarding the policies and reforms the Kenyan authorities are considering to address the current economic and fiscal challenges,” without commenting on Kenya’s negotiations with specific bilateral creditors.
Meanwhile, Kenya's political scene was shaken by the impeachment case of Vice President Rigathi Gachagua. After Gachagua’s removal by Parliament, a Kenyan court nullified the decree appointing his successor, Interior Secretary Kithure Kindiki, following an appeal against the removal. Gachagua also claimed to have survived two poisoning attempts: one on August 30, when undercover agents allegedly tried to taint his food, and another on September 3, in an incident that involved the Kikuyu council of elders. He further lamented the withdrawal of his personal security and the security detail at his residences, accusing President William Ruto of ordering the removal. Gachagua emphasized the political nature of the charges against him (corruption and serious constitutional violations), claiming that the impeachment was executed right after the assassination attempts. President Ruto has not commented on these allegations, likely to avoid compromising sensitive ongoing negotiations with the opposition regarding a possible cabinet reshuffle.
On a regional level, significant developments in the security sector have emerged. In South Sudan, President Salva Kiir replaced the head of the intelligence services, General Akol Koor Kuc, a prominent and controversial figure within his circle. Kuc, who led the National Security Service (NSS) since the country's independence in 2011, has been appointed governor of Warrap State, one of South Sudan’s most unstable areas and Kiir’s birthplace. The leadership of the NSS has been transferred to General Akec Tong Aleu, previously serving in the Ministry of Defense. The sudden removal of Kuc has sparked speculation about the reasons behind it: some believe it may be due to internal power struggles, while others suggest Kuc may be preparing to succeed the 73-year-old Kiir, whose health has been the subject of considerable speculation.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia and the United Kingdom’s intelligence agencies announced plans to strengthen their cooperation on security matters, with a focus on regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. The statement was issued by Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) following a visit to Addis Ababa by Richard Peter Moore, director of MI6, leading a high-level delegation. Discussions focused on regional and international issues, including Red Sea security, terrorism threats, and human trafficking. NISS Deputy Director Sisay Tola condemned destabilizing propaganda attempts related to Ethiopia’s initiative for Red Sea access and emphasized that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) should serve as a catalyst for cooperation rather than fueling conflict. Moore’s visit aligns with London’s plan to reassert its influence in the region: the Labour government aims to strengthen navigation security in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, through active cooperation with African coastal states.
Download the October 2024 report
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| Head of state | Sahle-Work Zewde |
| Head of Government | Abiy Ahmed Ali |
| Institutional Form | Federal Parliamentary Republic |
| Capital | Addis Ababa |
| Legislative Power | Bicameral Parliament: House of Federation (112 Members); House of People’s representatives (547 Members) |
| Judicial Power | Federal Supreme Court |
| Ambassador to Italy | Demitu Hambisa Bonsa |
| Total Area kmq | 1.104.300 Km2 |
| Land | 1.096.000 Km2 |
| Weather | Tropical-monsonic; the climate conditions change considerably depending on the geography |
| Natural resources | gold, platinum, copper, potassium, natural gas and hydropower |
| Economic summary | Ethiopia has the lowest level of income inequality in Africa and one of the lowest in the world. The key sectors of planned economy that belong to the State are telecommunications, banking and insurance, energy distribution. More than 70% of the population works in agriculture, but services have overtaken this sector and it represents the main source of GDP |
| GDP | $111 billion (Dec. 2021) |
| Pro-capite GDP (Purchasing power parity) | $2366 (Dec. 2021) |
| Exports | $3.5 billion (2020) |
| Export partner | Hong Kong 7.23%, UAE 7.05%, Saudi Arabia 5.78%, Netherland 5.07%, Germany, 4.81%, Italy 2.33% (2020) |
| Imports | $11.1 billion (2020) |
| Import partner | China 24.9%, India 8.17%, UAE 7.22%, Kuwait 4.8%, France 4.71%, UK 3.58%, Italy 2.27% (2020) |
| Trade With Italy | $277,34 million (2021) |
| Population | 113.656.596 |
| Population Growth | +2,46% (2022 est.) |
| Ethnicities | Orome 34%, Amhara 27%, Tigray 7%, Sidama 4%, Welaita 3%, Gurage 2%, Somalis 2%, Hadiva 2%, Afar 0.6%, other groups 12% |
| Languages | Orome 33%, Amharic 29%, Somalian 6%, Tiger 5%, Cider 4%, Wolaytta 2%, Gurage 2%, Aother 16% |
| Religions | Ethiopian Orthodox 43.8%, Muslims 31.3%, Protestants 22.8%, Chatolics 0.7%, traditional religions 0.6%, other religions 0.8% |
| Urbanization | 22,7% (2022 est.) |
| Literacy | 51,8% |
Located in East Africa, Ethiopia is the oldest independent state in Africa, whose origin can be traced back to 1270 A.C. Since then, the country has always maintained independence, despite a short period of Italian occupation (between 1936 and 1941). The Ethiopian Empire lasted until 1974, when it was overthrown by a military coup d'état.
Ethiopia is a landlocked country, bordering to the south with Kenya, to the southeast and east with Somalia, to the northeast with Djibouti, to the north with Eritrea, to the northwest with Sudan and to the west with South Sudan. Ethiopia’s population is 113.6 million, which makes it the second most populous country in Africa, after Nigeria. The official language is Amharic, but Oromo, Tigrinya and Somali as well as tens of other ethnic languages are regularly spoken in the country.
From a geostrategic perspective, Ethiopia is a very important country in the region. Since the beginning of the 2000s, it has achieved an important level of economic development, making it one of the main emerging market in sub-Saharan Africa. Ethiopia has an ongoing dispute with Sudan and Egypt over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the sharing of the Nile waters. It has also an open border dispute with Sudan, which has been the source of recent military confrontations between the two countries. Domestically, the disruption of the delicate balance based on ethnic federalism has turned into a conflict in the north of the country, which is still ongoing.
Trade with Italy is significant, and Ethiopia ranks fifth among Italy’s main export markets in sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, Italy is the fifth trading partner for Ethiopia. Italian companies are contracted for several infrastructural projects in the country, including the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, for which the Italian multinational Webuild (former Salini Impregilo) is the main contractor.
