Djibouti
Kenya continues to face political instability exacerbated by the public debt crisis. Economically, the government seems close to finalizing an agreement with the United Arab Emirates for a $1.5 billion loan, with an expected interest rate of around 8.2%, lower than the current yields on Kenyan sovereign bonds. However, the agreement's details may change as negotiations progress, and both parties have remained silent on the specifics. Nairobi’s decision to seek support from the UAE is also linked to delays from the International Monetary Fund, which has yet to release around $600 million in aid. The IMF postponed this funding, expressing doubts about recent government measures amid fears of further public protests. This situation is part of a complex financial landscape in which Kenya struggles to access funding, especially after its sovereign bonds were downgraded to "junk" by major rating agencies. An IMF spokesperson stated, “Discussions are ongoing regarding the policies and reforms the Kenyan authorities are considering to address the current economic and fiscal challenges,” without commenting on Kenya’s negotiations with specific bilateral creditors.
Meanwhile, Kenya's political scene was shaken by the impeachment case of Vice President Rigathi Gachagua. After Gachagua’s removal by Parliament, a Kenyan court nullified the decree appointing his successor, Interior Secretary Kithure Kindiki, following an appeal against the removal. Gachagua also claimed to have survived two poisoning attempts: one on August 30, when undercover agents allegedly tried to taint his food, and another on September 3, in an incident that involved the Kikuyu council of elders. He further lamented the withdrawal of his personal security and the security detail at his residences, accusing President William Ruto of ordering the removal. Gachagua emphasized the political nature of the charges against him (corruption and serious constitutional violations), claiming that the impeachment was executed right after the assassination attempts. President Ruto has not commented on these allegations, likely to avoid compromising sensitive ongoing negotiations with the opposition regarding a possible cabinet reshuffle.
On a regional level, significant developments in the security sector have emerged. In South Sudan, President Salva Kiir replaced the head of the intelligence services, General Akol Koor Kuc, a prominent and controversial figure within his circle. Kuc, who led the National Security Service (NSS) since the country's independence in 2011, has been appointed governor of Warrap State, one of South Sudan’s most unstable areas and Kiir’s birthplace. The leadership of the NSS has been transferred to General Akec Tong Aleu, previously serving in the Ministry of Defense. The sudden removal of Kuc has sparked speculation about the reasons behind it: some believe it may be due to internal power struggles, while others suggest Kuc may be preparing to succeed the 73-year-old Kiir, whose health has been the subject of considerable speculation.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia and the United Kingdom’s intelligence agencies announced plans to strengthen their cooperation on security matters, with a focus on regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. The statement was issued by Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) following a visit to Addis Ababa by Richard Peter Moore, director of MI6, leading a high-level delegation. Discussions focused on regional and international issues, including Red Sea security, terrorism threats, and human trafficking. NISS Deputy Director Sisay Tola condemned destabilizing propaganda attempts related to Ethiopia’s initiative for Red Sea access and emphasized that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) should serve as a catalyst for cooperation rather than fueling conflict. Moore’s visit aligns with London’s plan to reassert its influence in the region: the Labour government aims to strengthen navigation security in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, through active cooperation with African coastal states.
Download the October 2024 report
From Iran’s assertiveness to tensions between actors in the Horn of Africa, via piracy and terrorism: the role of the strategic straits in the new instability of the Gulf-Red Sea quadrant.
From the protection of maritime trade to the stability of the Horn of Africa: the importance of Djibouti’s military facilities for Mediterranean and European security.
| Head of state | Ismail Omar Guelleh |
| Head of Government | Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed |
| Institutional Form | Semi-presidential Republic |
| Capital | Djibouti City |
| Legislative Power | Unicameral Legislative Assembly (65 Members of Parliament elected every year) |
| Judicial Power | Supreme Court; Constitutional Council |
| Ambassador to Italy | Ayeid Mousseid Yahya (Ambassador in France, also responsible for Italy) |
| Total Area kmq | 23,300 km2 |
| Land | 22.980 km2 |
| Weather | Tropical-desert climate on the coast and in the north of the country, and semi-desert on the central-southern heights |
| Natural resources | geothermal energy, gold, clay, marble, limestone, granite, salt, plaster, diatomaceous earth, pumice, oil |
| Economic summary | The main resources of economy are imports and the service activities connected to the strategic position of the Djiboutian port on the Red Sea. Unemployment rate: 40%. Youth unemployment rate: about 80% |
| GDP | $3.37 billion (December 2021) |
| Pro-capite GDP (Purchasing power parity) | $5.394 (December 2021) |
| Exports | $4.94 billion (DJF 2020/2021) |
| Export partner | Ethiopia 31.3%, China 27.5%, India 10%, Saudi Arabia 9.98%, Egypt 3.2%, UK 3.8%, South Korea 2.8%, UAE 1.5%, Malaysia 1.9% (2020) |
| Imports | $5.37 billion (DJF 2020/2021) |
| Import partner | China 43%, UAE 14%, India 6.2%, Türkiye 5.9%, Morocco 4.6%, Indonesia 3.6%, Japan 1.8% (2020) |
| Trade With Italy | $18,9 million (2020) |
| Population | 957.273 (2022) |
| Population Growth | +1.97 (2022 est.) |
| Ethnicities | Somali 60%, Afar 35%, other groups 5% (especially Yemenis, French, Ethiopians and Italians) |
| Languages | French and Arabic |
| Religions | Islam 94% and Christianity 6% (foreigner residents) |
| Urbanization | 78.4% |
| Literacy | 70% |
Independent since 1977, Djibouti is a small and semi-desertic country. Located in East Africa, it borders with Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somaliland. With a population of over 900,000 inhabitants, its official languages are Arabic and French.
Its strategic position on the Bab el Mandeb Strait, which separates the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden, allows it not only to operate as a key logistics hub for international trade, but also to play an important role for security in the region. The country hosts various foreign military bases, including an Italian one.
Total trade with Italy amounts to $18.9 million (2021). In 2020, Djibouti signed a military cooperation agreement with Italy. The treaty sets several objectives directly affecting Italy and security in the broader Mediterranean, such as the strengthening of mutual defensive capabilities, the fight against piracy in the Horn of Africa and the development of the supply and logistics sectors of both countries. Other areas of cooperation include humanitarian and peacekeeping operations, the organisation of Djiboutian armed forces, military training and military health.
