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India: monthly report October 2024

On the international front, October began with a meeting in Washington between Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Blinken, that, ten days after the QUAD meeting, reaffirmed the commitment of the US and India to deepen bilateral relations, to coordinate closely on regional and global challenges (Ukraine, Middle East, Indo-Pacific), and to advance cooperation on critical and emerging technologies, including strategic technology sectors, space, semiconductors and clean energy.

And it was again Jaishankar who attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s summit in Islamabad on 15 October, nine years after the last visit of a foreign secretary to Pakistan. India has declared its intention to remain an active member of the SCO and to participate in the activities and initiatives promoted by the organization. Again, this is an expression of the 'multipolarity' of Delhi's foreign policy. From this perspective, Jaishankar's presence in Islamabad should not be interpreted as evidence of détente with its neighbors, but rather as India's interest in maintaining a strong position within the SCO to counter Chinese dominance in the forum. No bilateral meetings were held between Jaishankar and his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, but the minister attended the welcome reception hosted by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and held official talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

At the end of the month, Prime Minister Modi addressed the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, the first meeting of the group after the inclusion of the UAE, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia. On the eve of the summit, Modi held bilateral meetings with the Russian leader and the Iranian President. With Putin, Modi reaffirmed India's desire to see peace in Ukraine, and Delhi's readiness to help bring about a truce with Kiev. With Pezeshkian he called for de-escalation of tensions and protection of civilians in the Middle East. Of interest was the first official meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping since 2019, which marked the resumption of high-level ties between the two Asian giants. The two sides announced an agreement on the modalities of patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh between India and China, an important step towards disengagement of deployed troops and resolution of issues that arose in 2020. India's position within the BRICS takes on a peculiar aspect, given its positioning in recent years as a bridge-power between the West and the Global South, critical of the legacy of colonialism on a rhetorical level but in practice unaligned in favour of US adversaries. It is within the BRICS that India is most strongly competing with China for the leadership role of the Global South.

In recent weeks, the diplomatic crisis between India and Canada has escalated, culminating in the expulsion of six Indian diplomats following accusations against India. These accusations stem from the assassination, in front of a Sikh temple in British Columbia, of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian separatist, and alleged intimidation campaigns targeting the Sikh community in Canada. During mid-October testimony in a public inquiry, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Delhi of non-cooperation and exacerbating tensions that led to the mutual expulsion of senior diplomats. India has dismissed these accusations as "ridiculous." According to India's Ministry of External Affairs, Canadian authorities failed to present any evidence supporting the serious allegations against India and its diplomats, and their behavior was deemed "condescending," which is expected to have significant repercussions on bilateral relations.

Two bilateral visits to Delhi by two European heads of state took place at the end of October: German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, who participated with Modi in the 7th Intergovernmental Consultations and the 18th Asia Pacific Conference of German Business, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who with the Indian leader inaugurated the final assembly line of the C295 transport aircraft in Gujarat, the flagship of the ‘Make in India’ program born from the collaboration between Airbus-CASA and Tata Advanced Systems.

Domestically, on October 8, the results of the elections held in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana were announced. The case of Jammu and Kashmir is particularly complex: formerly the only Muslim-majority state in the Indian federation, it was stripped of its autonomy, separated from Ladakh, and downgraded to the status of a federal territory in 2019. After redrawing electoral boundaries and increasing the influence of Hindu-majority areas, the Modi government hoped to secure a victory for the BJP in this unstable and contested border region, which had last voted to elect local representatives in 2014. However, the alliance between the National Conference and Congress emerged victorious. In the state of Haryana, on the other hand, predictions of a significant electoral shift in favor of Congress were proven wrong by Narendra Modi's BJP, which was re-elected for a third consecutive term to govern the state.

Download the October 2024 report

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