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Italy as a European Hub in the Rise of the Global South
The article by Enrico Casini, Director of the Communications Unit at the Med-Or Italian Foundation, was published by Il Mattino on February 27, 2025.
In recent days, Johannesburg, South Africa, hosted the first meeting of the G20 foreign ministers. Throughout 2025, South Africa will hold the presidency of the forum that brings together the world’s major economies. This role represents a significant international platform for the African nation, further consolidating its position among emerging economies on the global stage.
South Africa’s presidency follows that of Brazil in 2024, India in 2023, and Indonesia in 2022. It is the first African country and, notably, the fourth consecutive emerging economy from the so-called Global South to host the summit. This group, comprising approximately seventy nations, includes some of the fastest-growing economies that have increasingly shaped international politics in recent years - Saudi Arabia and India being prime examples.
The rise of the Global South is one of the most striking indicators of the profound transformation that the international system is undergoing. In the past, the term Global South was synonymous with the Third World, a broad category of nations far removed from their present reality. However, the global landscape has shifted dramatically. Globalization has fostered greater economic interdependence and connectivity, integrating previously peripheral nations into the global economic framework with an increasingly significant role.
Between 2014 and 2024, the Global South accounted for 71.3% of global GDP growth and now holds 54.1% of global GDP, compared to 44.8% in the Global North. Projections suggest that by 2030, three of the world’s four largest economies will belong to the Global South. Demographically, this region, with a population of approximately six billion, is growing at an estimated rate of 1.2% annually - three times the 0.4% growth rate of the North. A key example of this shift is India, experiencing rapid economic expansion and recently surpassing China to become the world’s most populous nation. Unsurprisingly, India and China are vying for leadership within this diverse group of countries.
Having gained economic prominence, several emerging economies are also asserting themselves diplomatically, leveraging international forums such as the G20 and BRICS to advance their interests. Frequently operating outside traditional alliances, these nations advocate for a reconfiguration of global geopolitical and economic balances.
Within this broader transformation, Africa emerges as a continent with the potential for significant future growth. Despite ongoing challenges - political instability, conflicts, poverty, and inequality - Africa currently accounts for only 2.5% of global GDP. However, the continent possesses vast energy, mineral, and natural resources, is home to 18% of the world’s population, and is projected to surpass a 4% economic growth rate in 2025. In an era where competition over critical minerals and energy resources is intensifying, these assets constitute a primary driver of Africa’s economic expansion. Beyond its substantial hydrocarbon reserves, Africa harbors vast deposits of rare earth elements and critical minerals essential for emerging technologies - resources that are highly coveted by global powers. Leading African economies, such as South Africa, are at the forefront of this trajectory, navigating both opportunities and challenges.
The rise of the Global South underscores how the world is entering a new phase that cannot be interpreted through the political frameworks of the past. In this evolving landscape, the Mediterranean - a meeting point between North and South, and a hub connecting Europe, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific - assumes renewed strategic significance.
Italy, given its geographical position and historically strong relations with many African and Global South nations, is well-positioned to serve as Europe's natural hub in this transformation. How Italy and Europe engage with this new global reality, and thus increasingly with the Global South, will be decisive for their future. Initiatives such as the Mattei Plan could play a strategic role in enhancing Italy’s engagement with Africa and the Mediterranean at a time when the Global South is becoming ever more central to the Global North. In this context, Southern Italy itself could also gain greater significance within the broader national and European framework.
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