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The Riyadh Meeting Between the United States and Russia and the New Paradigm of the International System
What International Developments Might Emerge from the Recent Summit Between Russia and the United States in Riyadh? An analysis by Giorgio Cella
Washington and Moscow convened for their first summit aimed at establishing a roadmap to facilitate a resolution to the crisis in Ukraine. This meeting, intended to initiate a path toward silencing the weapons of a conflict on European soil, took place in Riyadh, the capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, home to the sacred Islamic sites of Mecca and Medina. This geographical aspect is, as a primary point of analysis, highly significant for understanding the substantial shift underway in the balance of the international system, both geopolitically and diplomatically. Indeed, beyond its enhanced role as an actor capable of maintaining primary relations with both the United States and the West on one hand, and with Russia, China, and the BRICS nations on the other, Saudi Arabia has also played a role as a diplomatic mediator between Russians and Ukrainians over the three years of conflict, including in prisoner exchange negotiations.
Beyond this initial reflection on the geographical factor, the shift in diplomatic capitals, and the mediatory influence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in international affairs, it is necessary to focus on the high-level diplomatic summit held in the Saudi capital.
This bilateral meeting between Russia and the United States, which saw delegations of the highest rank convene in Riyadh, was both historic and controversial due to the reactions it elicited among European chancelleries. The primary agenda of the discussions centered on a potential resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, with an immediate ceasefire as the foremost objective. However, the meeting and the newly reinvigorated U.S.-Russia relations, strongly advocated by President Trump, extended well beyond the Ukrainian issue, encompassing other aspects of international affairs, including the Middle East situation and trade relations. On the latter matter, the presence of Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, in the Russian delegation is noteworthy. Dmitriev stated his intention "to restore communication, success, and trust between the parties", with the clear objective of ending the sanctions regime imposed on Moscow and, more broadly, unlocking the economic exchange potential between the two nations. He further asserted that he would present the U.S. delegation with an estimate indicating that American businesses had lost more than $300 billion following the 2022 decision to exit the Russian market.
The ultimate significance of this initial high-level meeting - designed as a preparatory step for a forthcoming summit between Trump and Putin - lies in the mechanism it sets in motion for the restoration of bilateral relations, rooted in the shared goal of ending the war in Ukraine and achieving full normalization of U.S.-Russia ties. The meeting of senior officials also served as a symbolic gesture, signaling détente and a reversal of the dangerous and sustained tensions that have characterized the past three years, marked by nuclear threats in the background.
Equally indicative of the radical transformation underway are the statements made by representatives of the respective diplomatic corps, which merit careful consideration. Following more than four hours of discussions, the newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, stated that "both sides have agreed to work towards a peace agreement for the Ukrainian situation and to explore the incredible opportunities available for collaboration with the Russians," both in terms of shared strategic orientations in international affairs and economic cooperation.
"I have reason to believe that the American side has begun to better understand our positions", remarked Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, expressing thinly veiled satisfaction at Washington's shift in stance toward Moscow. This development represents a significant achievement for Russian diplomacy, which could hardly have anticipated such an evolution in its relations with the United States.
This meeting, the first in a planned series of engagements between the two sides, marks a clear break with past U.S. administrations and the extensive efforts undertaken by the West to isolate and sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. This, in turn, reflects a clear form of Realpolitik, entailing a degree of indifference toward violations of international law and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that the United States and the European Union had previously prioritized and defended for decades—not only in Ukraine. In their final remarks to the media, U.S. diplomats notably avoided addressing these sensitive issues, instead emphasizing Trump's ability to engage with Russia and his potential to bring an end to the bloodshed on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Based on the analysis conducted thus far, four fundamental observations emerge, which will likely remain relevant throughout the next four years of Trump's presidency, barring unforeseen developments:
- The alignment between President Trump and Vladimir Putin appears to take precedence over the security concerns of former European allies and the West’s prior strategy of exerting pressure on Russia to push it out of the Western geopolitical sphere.
- The new administration’s political approach clearly prioritizes bilateral relations with individual European nations over the European Union as a unified entity—an approach long favored by the Kremlin. Furthermore, the absence of both the EU and Ukraine from this preliminary diplomatic engagement in Riyadh suggests a deliberate deprioritization of Ukraine under President Zelensky, though future diplomatic meetings may include Ukrainian participation.
- Trump is pursuing a strategic objective directly opposed to that of Brussels and the previous Biden administration: rather than further isolating Russia, he seeks to reintegrate Moscow into the Western community while simultaneously working to weaken Russia’s growing partnership with China. A deeper analysis—one that will be explored in future discussions—suggests that this Russia-China partnership is not as absolute or unshakable as some prevailing narratives might suggest.
- Strains in transatlantic relations could become a defining feature of this new international order, potentially weakening or even eroding the existing Euro-Atlantic multilateral structures, including the European Union and NATO, as well as other major global organizations such as the WTO, WHO, and UNESCO. In response, Europe might—however unlikely it seems at present—be compelled to develop a new unified political and military dimension of its own.
